← Favonia Kampar Grand Opening WIN HALF CASE Tournament
Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at Favonia Kampar Grand Opening WIN HALF CASE Tournament
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
43.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1428
· median 1428
· range 1428–1428
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1221
Q3 1416
1465
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 26.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.3% | -3.5 |
| Wind Allies | 15.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 10.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
